Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe: A Groundbreaking Study

November 24, 2024 Trebor2510

Contents

1 Introduction
- - 1.0.1 Key Findings of the Study (Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe)
2 Our Approach and Dates
3 Rethinking the Origins of Megalithic Civilization: A Critical Perspective
- - 3.0.1 Conclusion
4 Further Reading
5 Other Blogs

Introduction

The study by, Schulz Paulsson, (Bettina. (2019). Radiocarbon dates and Bayesian modeling support maritime diffusion model for megaliths in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116. 201813268. 10.1073/pnas.1813268116.) which uses Radiocarbon dates and Bayesian modelling, supports the maritime diffusion model for megaliths in Europe and offers a transformative perspective on the origins and spread of megalithic structures across Europe. This research challenges traditional narratives through cutting-edge radiocarbon dating and Bayesian statistical modelling and provides compelling evidence that maritime routes played a pivotal role in disseminating megalithic culture. (Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe)

This impressive statistical analysis of 2,410 radiocarbon dates across Europe provides valuable insights into prehistoric activity. However, the conclusions and maps presented rely on Bayesian calculations, which are the standard approach in archaeology but come with limitations. While effective for modelling temporal ranges, Bayesian mathematics often fails to accurately identify ancient sites’ original construction dates. Incorporating all radiocarbon dates—many from later reuse, repairs, or unrelated activities—skew results toward the dataset’s midpoint, assuming continuous site usage and dismissing outliers that may represent the earliest phases of construction. In contexts where dates span millennia, this approach can obscure the actual timeline of a site’s origin. To address this, alternative methods, such as focusing on the earliest securely stratified dates or applying cluster analyses, offer a more reliable way to isolate initial construction phases and better understand the past. Our further analysis will be conducted after the study’s findings are finished.

(Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe)

Key Findings of the Study (Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe)

Megalithic Origins: The research identifies northwestern France as the probable origin of megalithic construction around 4500 BCE. This area is a central hub for innovation and dissemination.

Maritime Diffusion: Contrary to the traditional idea of gradual land-based diffusion, the study suggests that megalithic culture spread primarily through maritime networks. Coastal and island communities were key nodes in this transmission, highlighting the importance of seafaring in prehistoric Europe.

Radiocarbon Dating: A comprehensive dataset of radiocarbon dates from megalithic sites was analysed. This precise chronology supports the rapid and widespread adoption of megalithic construction techniques over vast distances, aligning with the maritime diffusion hypothesis.

Bayesian Modeling: Bayesian statistical techniques are used to produce these dates, but people should be aware that this kind of modelling only gives the average date, NOT the first date that the site appeared! – see below for further analysis.

Implications for Prehistoric Societies: The study underscores the advanced navigational and organisational skills of prehistoric European societies. It suggests that these communities were not isolated but actively engaged in long-distance interaction and knowledge exchange.

Impact on Archaeological Thought
Understanding the spread of megalithic culture is crucial for unravelling the complexities of prehistoric Europe. This study provides a more precise timeline and highlights ancient societies’ innovative capabilities. It prompts a reevaluation of how we perceive cultural diffusion and the role of maritime activity in shaping human history.

Why This Matters
Understanding the spread of megalithic culture is crucial for unravelling the complexities of prehistoric Europe. This study not only provides a clearer timeline but also highlights ancient societies’ innovative capabilities. It prompts a reevaluation of how we perceive cultural diffusion and the role of maritime activity in shaping human history.

Conclusion
The maritime diffusion model for megaliths in Europe represents a paradigm shift in archaeological thought. It opens new avenues for exploring prehistoric societies’ interconnectedness and technological prowess. This study is a testament to how modern techniques like radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modelling can illuminate ancient mysteries, enriching our understanding of human history.
This research offers a compelling narrative and a wealth of data for those interested in prehistoric archaeology, maritime trade, or ancient societies’ ingenuity.

We have used AI to crunch the data and produce new mathematical models that show when Megalithic Monuments were created rather than were used.

(Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe)

Our Approach and Dates

Site	Latest_date	Earliest_date	Date_range	Likely Date of Construction BCE
Saint Michel	4980	8800	3820	8800
Orquinha dos Juncais	4620	8750	4130	8750
Curacchiaghiu	7300	8560	1260	8560
Flintbek	3638	8328	4690	8328
Casinha Derribada	3115	8080	4965	8080
Madorras I	3500	8000	4500	8000
Le Souc´h	2200	7985	5785	7985
Tremedal	4860	7960	3100	7960
Orca de Merouços	4480	7740	3260	7740
Sarceaux	1445	7670	6225	7670
Cabeçuda	3650	7660	4010	7660
Gökhem 94: 1	3615	7615	4000	7615
Barkaer	2190	7580	5390	7580
Cabeço da Arruda (Muge), Ribatejo	6360	7550	1190	7550
Sketewan	7500	7500	0	7500
Cuevo de los Murciélagos	5400	7440	2040	7440
Cabeço da Amoreira (Muge), Ribatejo	6550	7300	750	7300
Moita do Sebastião (Muge), Ribatejo	6810	7240	430	7240
Cabeço das Amoreiras, Alentejo	7230	7230	0	7230
Arapouco	7200	7200	0	7200
Hoëdic	5080	7165	2085	7165
Cova da Onça (Magos), Ribatejo	7140	7140	0	7140
L´Ubac	2060	7060	5000	7060
Châ de Carvahal 1	5860	7030	1170	7030
Quélarn	5760	6990	1230	6990
Ballymcdermot	940	6925	5985	6925
Châ da Parada 3	5070	6910	1840	6910
Knowth 1	4405	6835	2430	6835
Cabeço do Pez, Alentejo	6740	6760	20	6760
Téviec	5680	6740	1060	6740
Carvahal	6730	6730	0	6730
Balnuaran of Clava	6410	6670	260	6670
Chan de Prado 6	6575	6575	0	6575
Cabras	3850	6570	2720	6570
Valdemuriel 2	6565	6565	0	6565
Carrowmore	1500	6500	5000	6500
Grotte de Puechmargues	6420	6420	0	6420
Samouqueira 1	6370	6370	0	6370
Castelhanas	780	6360	5580	6360
Correio- Mór	6330	6330	0	6330
Outeiro de Ante 1	6310	6310	0	6310
Er Grah	4885	6305	1420	6305
Biggar Common	5150	6300	1150	6300
Dissignac	4940	6250	1310	6250
Table des Marchands	3250	6210	2960	6210
Tertre de Lomer	6210	6210	0	6210
Figueira Branca	6210	6210	0	6210
Vallon Carbonel	6200	6200	0	6200
Font de la Vena	5780	6190	410	6190
La Chaise	6190	6190	0	6190
Ascott-under-Wychwood	1130	6180	5050	6180
Skorba	4380	6140	1760	6140
Cabritos 3	6100	6100	0	6100
Passy Sablonnière	3345	6090	2745	6090
Lupawa	5730	6060	330	6060
Coto dos Mouros	3830	6050	2220	6050
Alto da Barreira	2840	6030	3190	6030
Menhir de Meada	6022	6022	0	6022
Boghead	4823	6006	1183	6006
Haut Mée	4900	5995	1095	5995
Areita 1	4840	5970	1130	5970
Passy Richebourg	5425	5960	535	5960
Goumoizère	5350	5940	590	5940
Cerro Virtud	5660	5920	260	5920
Cova de I´Avellaner	5830	5920	90	5920
Outeiro de Ante 2	5920	5920	0	5920
Chan da Cruz 1	5210	5890	680	5890
El Padró II	5580	5870	290	5870
Kilpatrick	5870	5870	0	5870
Bougon/Chirons	4410	5860	1450	5860
Kercado	5840	5840	0	5840
Lannec er Gadouer	5210	5835	625	5835
Monte Areo VI	5820	5820	0	5820
Alcalar 7	3860	5810	1950	5810
Larrarte	5070	5810	740	5810
Larratbi	5070	5810	740	5810
Monte Maninho	5680	5805	125	5805
Île Guennoc III	4500	5800	1300	5800
Îlot de Roc´h Avel	5230	5800	570	5800
Outeiro de Ante 3	4090	5780	1690	5780
Barnenez	2200	5750	3550	5750
Azutan	4590	5750	1160	5750
Hazleton North	4450	5730	1280	5730
Castelo Belinho	5500	5720	220	5720
Castillejo	3810	5710	1900	5710
Vierville/La Butte á Luzerne	5339	5690	351	5690
Catasol 2	5470	5680	210	5680
Valdemuriel 1	5670	5670	0	5670
Le Grée de Cojoux	3940	5660	1720	5660
Sandun	5660	5660	0	5660
Petit Mont	4650	5650	1000	5650
Campo del Hockey	5020	5650	630	5650
Caune de Belesta	5640	5640	0	5640
Monte da Olheira	5195	5630	435	5630
Balloy, Les Réaudins	4900	5615	715	5615
Les Fouaillages	4000	5590	1590	5590
Les Erves	4650	5580	930	5580
Ty Floc´h, St. Thois	4670	5580	910	5580
Sarnowo	5570	5570	0	5570
La Hoguette	4300	5560	1260	5560
Gruta dos Escoral	5560	5560	0	5560
Cleaven Dyke	5500	5550	50	5550
Mestreville	5550	5550	0	5550
Lyse 7	5545	5545	0	5545
Bòbila Madurell	4560	5540	980	5540
Chenon	5540	5540	0	5540
Mámoa do Monte: dos Marxos	5540	5540	0	5540
Châ da Parada 4	4910	5530	620	5530
Outeiro de Gregos 2	4950	5500	550	5500
Boeriza 2	5200	5500	300	5500
Péré, tumulus C	5295	5500	205	5500
Larcuste II	3980	5490	1510	5490
Beg-an-Dorchem	4140	5490	1350	5490
Monte Revincu, Dolmen de Casa di l´Urca	5440	5490	50	5490
Hayas I	5490	5490	0	5490
Changé, (Saint Piat)	2750	5470	2720	5470
Monte Areo V	5330	5470	140	5470
Chã de Carvahal 1	5450	5450	0	5450
Portela do Pau 1	5440	5440	0	5440
Portela do Pau 2	5087	5435	348	5435
Contraguda	5070	5423	353	5423
La Hogue Bie	4110	5410	1300	5410
Monte Revincu, Dolmen de Cellucia	5410	5410	0	5410
Monte Revincu, Casa di L´Urcu	5355	5405	50	5405
La Cabana 2	5405	5405	0	5405
Monte Revincu, secteur de la Cima de Suarella	5405	5405	0	5405
Monte Areo XII	5133	5404	271	5404
Joaninha	3840	5400	1560	5400
Dolmen d`Arreganyats	5400	5400	0	5400
Île Carn	4840	5390	550	5390
Brochtorff Circle	1480	5380	3900	5380
Fuentepecina	5170	5375	205	5375
Champ Châlon, Monument B1	5365	5365	0	5365
Lambourne Ground	5365	5365	0	5365
Lameira de Cima 2	4961	5360	399	5360
Camp del Ginébre	3305	5355	2050	5355
Monte Revincu	5355	5355	0	5355
Najac	5265	5354	89	5354
Els Vilars	5280	5340	60	5340
La Motte des Justices	5340	5340	0	5340
Antelas	4655	5330	675	5330
Mámoa do Monte: dos Marxos	5330	5330	0	5330
Cova del Lladres	5330	5330	0	5330
Prajou Menhir	5330	5330	0	5330
Cotogrande 1	4940	5329	389	5329
Alberite	5020	5320	300	5320
Ventin 4	5320	5320	0	5320
Rebolledo	5075	5305	230	5305
Trikuaizti I	5300	5300	0	5300
Camp de la Vergentière	5300	5300	0	5300
Ciella	5290	5290	0	5290
Furnas 1	5270	5270	0	5270
Igartza W	5270	5270	0	5270
Furnas 2	5270	5270	0	5270
Le Déhus	4133	5263	1130	5263
Meninas do Crastro 2	5260	5260	0	5260
Neuvy-en-Dunois	5250	5250	0	5250
Velilla 2	5250	5250	0	5250
La Cabaña	5240	5240	0	5240
La Pierre Tourneresse	4370	5235	865	5235
Outeiro de Gregos 3	2510	5230	2720	5230
Primrose Grange	4360	5230	870	5230
Sierra Plana de la Borbolla 24	5230	5230	0	5230
Uglhöj	5220	5220	0	5220
Jättegraven	5220	5220	0	5220
Slieve Gullion	3955	5215	1260	5215
Beckhampton Road	4467	5200	733	5200
Grotte des Cranes	5200	5200	0	5200
Velilla 3	5200	5200	0	5200
L´île Bono	5195	5195	0	5195
Pena Ovieda I	5195	5195	0	5195
Los Llanos 1	4080	5190	1110	5190
Dalladies	4532	5190	658	5190
Horslip	5190	5190	0	5190
La Llaguna A	5140	5175	35	5175
Wietrzychowice	5170	5170	0	5170
Picoto da Vasco	3690	5160	1470	5160
Cave de Cadaval	5160	5160	0	5160
El Miradero	5115	5155	40	5155
Dooey´s Cairn	4630	5150	520	5150
Borgstedt LA 22	4901	5150	249	5150
Morceo	5150	5150	0	5150
Colombiers-sur-Seulles	5150	5150	0	5150
As Rozas 1	5150	5150	0	5150
Krusza Zamkova	5140	5140	0	5140
Liscuis I	5140	5140	0	5140
La Llaguna D	5110	5135	25	5135
Senhora do Monte 3	4990	5130	140	5130
Mina do Simão	5010	5130	120	5130
Castello d'Araggio, C-Ar-4	5130	5130	0	5130
Carapito 1	4850	5125	275	5125
Odarslöv	1650	5115	3465	5115
Mamoa do Castelo 1	3806	5112	1306	5112
Monamore	4190	5110	920	5110
Albersdorf: LA 56: Bredenhoop	4829	5110	281	5110
Coldrum	4413	5101	688	5101
Poulnabrone	3290	5100	1810	5100
La Mina	5100	5100	0	5100
Els garrofers del torrent de Sta. Maria	5100	5100	0	5100
Montou	4270	5095	825	5095
Örnakulla	4695	5095	400	5095
Maes Howe	1045	5090	4045	5090
Sa ´Ucca de su Tintirriolu	4850	5090	240	5090
Dolmen de Tires Llargues	5090	5090	0	5090
Champ Châlon, Monument B2	5090	5090	0	5090
Mosegården	4890	5080	190	5080
La Xorenga	5059	5080	21	5080
San Benedetto	4920	5078	158	5078
Street House	3220	5070	1850	5070
Port Blanc	4200	5070	870	5070
Lochhill	5070	5070	0	5070
Orca das Castenairas	3250	5060	1810	5060
Monte da Romea	4265	5055	790	5055
Trefignath	2210	5050	2840	5050
Bjørnsholm	3050	5050	2000	5050
Gwernvale	4390	5050	660	5050
Orca de Seixas	4900	5045	145	5045
Ballybriest	4930	5045	115	5045
Monte Areo XV	4850	5040	190	5040
Champ Châlon, Monument C	4980	5030	50	5030
Seamer Moor	5030	5030	0	5030
Broadsands	3607	5029	1422	5029
Le Castellic	3930	5025	1095	5025
Ponte da Pedra	2970	5020	2050	5020
Châ da Parada 1	3940	5010	1070	5010
Lindebjerg	5010	5010	0	5010
Pedra Cuberta	5010	5010	0	5010
Gökhem 17	2105	5005	2900	5005
Acon	5005	5005	0	5005
Vale de Rodrigo 3	4996	4996	0	4996
Orca da Penela 1	4320	4990	670	4990
Châ de Santinhos 2	4930	4990	60	4990
Lameira de Cima 1	4990	4990	0	4990
Algarão da Goldra	4990	4990	0	4990
Châ de Santinhos 1	4980	4980	0	4980
Pedra Moura	4980	4980	0	4980
Rustrup I	4910	4970	60	4970
Pen-y-Wyrlod	4970	4970	0	4970
Su Stampu e Giovnnicu Meli	4969	4969	0	4969
Tulloch of Assery B	4095	4965	870	4965
Tully	4445	4960	515	4960
Willerby Wold	4900	4960	60	4960
Gladsax	4960	4960	0	4960
Meninas do Crastro 3	4960	4960	0	4960
Cotobasero 2	4960	4960	0	4960
Orca dos Padrões	4960	4960	0	4960
Hirumugarrieta 2	4865	4955	90	4955
West Kennet Long Barrow	3934	4950	1016	4950
Dombate	3950	4950	1000	4950
Chamster Long	4780	4950	170	4950
Costa dels Garrics de Caballol I Pinell	4950	4950	0	4950
Grotta Filiestru	4950	4950	0	4950
Dolmen de Menga	1100	4935	3835	4935
Shanballeyedmond no 3	4930	4930	0	4930
El Palomar	4930	4930	0	4930
Feixa del Moro	4930	4930	0	4930
Monte d´Accodi	4440	4920	480	4920
Rustrup II	4920	4920	0	4920
Forno dos Mouros	4920	4920	0	4920
Rude	4180	4910	730	4910
Vale de Rodrigo 2	3905	4905	1000	4905
Mound of the Hostages	3880	4900	1020	4900
Millbarrow	4450	4900	450	4900
Grotta del Guano	4830	4900	70	4900
Anta de Serramo	4900	4900	0	4900
Collado Palomero 2	4900	4900	0	4900
West Tump	4527	4897	370	4897
Valtorp 2	2440	4890	2450	4890
Ernes	4840	4880	40	4880
Cotogrande 2	4875	4875	0	4875
Knowth 17	4797	4873	76	4873
Oldendorf IV	3320	4870	1550	4870
Champ Châlon, Monument A	3335	4870	1535	4870
Pierre Virante II	4040	4870	830	4870
Bagnos	4870	4870	0	4870
Glenvoideau	4860	4860	0	4860
Kleinenkneten 2	4860	4860	0	4860
Knowth	4852	4852	0	4852
Bissee	4850	4850	0	4850
As Pereiras	4850	4850	0	4850
Konens Høj	4850	4850	0	4850
La Vega 1	4840	4840	0	4840
Carreg Coetan	4470	4830	360	4830
Montiou	4530	4830	300	4830
Kilham	4830	4830	0	4830
Kerléven	3800	4825	1025	4825
Storegard IV	4710	4825	115	4825
Creggandevesky	4740	4825	85	4825
Pena Ovieda	4820	4820	0	4820
Dorna	4820	4820	0	4820
Wayland´s Smithy	4547	4817	270	4817
South Stanwick	3320	4810	1490	4810
Velilla 1	4810	4810	0	4810
Tulloch of Assery A	3055	4800	1745	4800
Heberg	4800	4800	0	4800
Ballintruer More	4800	4800	0	4800
Grundoldendorf I	3340	4795	1455	4795
Lüdelsen 6	4164	4795	631	4795
Parknabinnia	4195	4785	590	4785
Outeiro de Gregos 5	3250	4780	1530	4780
Cabeceira 4	4759	4780	21	4780
Jerpoint West	4305	4770	465	4770
Carascal	4640	4770	130	4770
Sobreira 1	4770	4770	0	4770
Ashley Park	4385	4765	380	4765
South Street	4530	4760	230	4760
Rastorf	3340	4755	1415	4755
Drottning Hackas grav	3960	4755	795	4755
La Hameliniere	4755	4755	0	4755
Großenrode II	4110	4750	640	4750
Peña Guerra 2	4640	4750	110	4750
Rokaer	4740	4740	0	4740
Bygholm Nørremark	4740	4740	0	4740
Casota do Páramo	4740	4740	0	4740
Cova del Toixò	4740	4740	0	4740
Baunogenasraid	4735	4735	0	4735
Easton Down, Bisshop´s Canning	3860	4730	870	4730
Collado Palomero 1	4270	4730	460	4730
Kjeldbækgård	4610	4730	120	4730
Arnillas	4575	4720	145	4720
Torshøj	4590	4720	130	4720
Moinhos de Vento	4720	4720	0	4720
Zberzyn	4720	4720	0	4720
San Bieito 2	4717	4717	0	4717
Port Charlotte	4540	4710	170	4710
Ølstykke	4710	4710	0	4710
Canelles	4345	4708	363	4708
El Collado de Mallo	3840	4700	860	4700
Cabeço de Arruda 2	4230	4700	470	4700
Tustrup	4680	4700	20	4700
Fuente Morena	4700	4700	0	4700
Le Stade	4700	4700	0	4700
La Bruyere du Hamel	4090	4690	600	4690
La Butte Saint Cyr	4130	4690	560	4690
Pujolet de Moja	4690	4690	0	4690
Mysinge 2	270	4685	4415	4685
Tulach an T`Sionnaich	4055	4685	630	4685
Point of Cott	3610	4680	1070	4680
La Ciste de Cous	4640	4680	40	4680
Townleyhall II	4680	4680	0	4680
Ardcrony	4675	4675	0	4675
Nutbane	4671	4671	0	4671
Sobreira de Cima 3	4670	4670	0	4670
The Ord North	4480	4665	185	4665
Vroue Hede	4660	4660	0	4660
Holtenes III	4660	4660	0	4660
Warburg III	4653	4653	0	4653
North Mains	3400	4650	1250	4650
Huerta Montero	3720	4650	930	4650
Phoenix Park	4520	4650	130	4650
Bagnolet	4590	4650	60	4650
Cabeço da Areira	4650	4650	0	4650
Cova de la Font del Molinot	4650	4650	0	4650
Rabuje 5	4650	4650	0	4650
Stoneyfield, Raigmore	4649	4649	0	4649
Tofta 14/Ansarve Hage	1515	4640	3125	4640
Pena Guerra II	3410	4640	1230	4640
Hejring	4540	4640	100	4640
Ansião	4640	4640	0	4640
Ta´Hagrat	4640	4640	0	4640
Odoorn	4550	4630	80	4630
Château Blanc	2720	4620	1900	4620
Giants Hills	4410	4620	210	4620
Hvalshøje	4620	4620	0	4620
Quanterness	920	4610	3690	4610
L´Hotel de Dieu	4610	4610	0	4610
Calden	4412	4605	193	4605
Warburg V	4600	4600	0	4600
Pedras Grandes	4530	4590	60	4590
Snibhøj	4590	4590	0	4590
Abogalheira 1	4590	4590	0	4590
Odoorn D32	4590	4590	0	4590
Lisduggan North	4585	4585	0	4585
Mané Kernaplaye	4585	4585	0	4585
Fjälkinge 9	4465	4580	115	4580
Warburg IV	4351	4570	219	4570
Kinneved 21/Slutarp	4470	4570	100	4570
Ditfurt	4570	4570	0	4570
Vroue Hede Ia	4570	4570	0	4570
Vroue Hede III	4040	4560	520	4560
Falköpings västra 7	4150	4560	410	4560
Skjeberg	4270	4560	290	4560
Dolmen de Viera	3580	4550	970	4550
Klokkehøj	4140	4550	410	4550
Poulawack	4485	4550	65	4550
Großeibstadt I	4550	4550	0	4550
La Pierre Godon	4550	4550	0	4550
Beaulieu	4550	4550	0	4550
Odoorn D32a	4550	4550	0	4550
Dötlingen	4545	4545	0	4545
La Chaussée Tirancourt	3350	4540	1190	4540
Odagsen	4285	4540	255	4540
Ramshög	4330	4540	210	4540
Raevehøj	4540	4540	0	4540
Newgrange	2250	4535	2285	4535
La Grosse Motte	4535	4535	0	4535
Sobreira de Cima 1	4500	4530	30	4530
Castro Marim	4525	4525	0	4525
Rego da Murta 1	3510	4520	1010	4520
Nordhausen 2	4520	4520	0	4520
Dolmen de Mailleton	4520	4520	0	4520
Sobreira de Cima 4	4520	4520	0	4520
Karleby 59	4415	4515	100	4515
Hunnebostrand	4380	4510	130	4510
Les Varennes	3505	4505	1000	4505
Falköpings stad 3	4230	4505	275	4505
Noisy-sur-Ecole	2970	4500	1530	4500
Tossen-Keler	4500	4500	0	4500
Altendorf	4500	4500	0	4500
Jörlanda 120	4500	4500	0	4500
Trekoner	4500	4500	0	4500
Aguels	4500	4500	0	4500
S. Caterina di Pittinuri	4496	4496	0	4496
Jordehøj	3690	4490	800	4490
Maison Rouge	4310	4490	180	4490
Alvastra	4490	4490	0	4490
Kellerød	4490	4490	0	4490
Tarxien	3286	4485	1199	4485
Großenrode I	4400	4485	85	4485
Isbister	3250	4480	1230	4480
Cova de las Encantades de Martis	3570	4480	910	4480
Loon D15	4480	4480	0	4480
Horta	4480	4480	0	4480
Cannas di Sotto	4476	4476	0	4476
Schönstedt	4445	4475	30	4475
Ubby Dysselod	4475	4475	0	4475
Valle de las Higueras	3330	4470	1140	4470
Gavrinis	4060	4470	410	4470
Berry-au-Bac	4460	4460	0	4460
Niederbösa	4460	4460	0	4460
Liscuis II	4170	4450	280	4450
Atteln	4321	4450	129	4450
Trigache 4	4450	4450	0	4450
Cuesta de los Almendrillos	4450	4450	0	4450
Cova del Frare	4450	4450	0	4450
Kurtzebide	4445	4445	0	4445
Maglehøj	4440	4440	0	4440
Portejoie/sepulture 1	3040	4435	1395	4435
Kruckow	3800	4435	635	4435
Goërem	2620	4430	1810	4430
Holm of Papa Westray North	4250	4430	180	4430
Gökhem 78	4430	4430	0	4430
Valtorp 1	4430	4430	0	4430
Falk stad 3	910	4428	3518	4428
Stones of Steness	3680	4425	745	4425
Ȧ Djèyî	4425	4425	0	4425
Los Millares	3820	4420	600	4420
Aldersro	4010	4420	410	4420
Monte Canelas 1	4370	4420	50	4420
Saint-Gervais	4400	4420	20	4420
Can Pey	4420	4420	0	4420
Øm	4420	4420	0	4420
Knowth 9	4420	4420	0	4420
Praia das Maças	3650	4410	760	4410
Santa Margarida 2	4410	4410	0	4410
Casullo	4410	4410	0	4410
Lairg, Achany Glen	4410	4410	0	4410
Arruda	4410	4410	0	4410
Buchow-Karpzow	4353	4405	52	4405
Knowth 16	4399	4399	0	4399
Annaghmare	4395	4395	0	4395
Petit-Chasseur I	3790	4390	600	4390
Kermené	4030	4390	360	4390
Cotogrande 5	4065	4390	325	4390
Falköpings stad 28	4120	4390	270	4390
Point of Cott,	4360	4390	30	4390
Lohra	4389	4389	0	4389
Warburg I	4376	4376	0	4376
Megalithe du Chateau	3955	4375	420	4375
Gökhem 31	4290	4370	80	4370
Hotié de Viviane	4370	4370	0	4370
Bola da Cera	4360	4360	0	4360
Embo	3720	4340	620	4340
Liepen	4082	4340	258	4340
Knowe of Ramsey	4300	4340	40	4340
Val de Marais	4340	4340	0	4340
Trigache 2	4340	4340	0	4340
Pierowall Quarry	4030	4330	300	4330
Capitaine	4330	4330	0	4330
Wewelsburg I	4324	4324	0	4324
Ølshøj	4245	4315	70	4315
Praalata	4310	4310	0	4310
Knowe of Rowiegar	4005	4305	300	4305
El Baranquete	4280	4300	20	4300
Pors-Poulhan	4300	4300	0	4300
Campiños 6	4300	4300	0	4300
Santa Margarida 3	560	4290	3730	4290
Petit Chasseur	4020	4290	270	4290
Rego da Murta 2	4060	4290	230	4290
Olival da Pega 2b	4130	4290	160	4290
El Llord	4290	4290	0	4290
Serra Cannigas	4289	4289	0	4289
Großeneder	4283	4283	0	4283
Casal do Penedo	4280	4280	0	4280
Scab´e Arriu	4202	4278	76	4278
Ballyglass	4055	4270	215	4270
Carcavelos	4130	4270	140	4270
Kierzkowo 1	4135	4270	135	4270
Quoyness	4190	4265	75	4265
Lons	3510	4260	750	4260
Paimogo 1	4100	4250	150	4250
Niedertiefenbach	4140	4250	110	4250
Gnewitz	4250	4250	0	4250
Le Hazoy	4250	4250	0	4250
Vers-sur-Selles	3070	4240	1170	4240
Er Yoc´h	3130	4240	1110	4240
Wéris I	4170	4240	70	4240
Wéris II	4180	4240	60	4240
Coureleiros 4	4240	4240	0	4240
Cova 120	4240	4240	0	4240
Carlshögen	3380	4230	850	4230
Tågarp	3390	4230	840	4230
Cudières	3650	4230	580	4230
Can Sadurni	4100	4225	125	4225
Knowe of Yarso	4225	4225	0	4225
Meninas do Crastro 4	3800	4220	420	4220
La Paloma	4070	4220	150	4220
Paraje de Monte Bajo	4210	4220	10	4220
Wandersleben	4220	4220	0	4220
Pedra dos Mouros	270	4210	3940	4210
Callanish	3495	4210	715	4210
Petit Pied	3630	4210	580	4210
Karleby 105	4206	4206	0	4206
Thorsberg	4160	4205	45	4205
Liscuis III	2250	4200	1950	4200
Dolmen de la Venta	3820	4200	380	4200
La Venta	3820	4200	380	4200
Saint-Véran	3850	4200	350	4200
La Boixe B	4085	4200	115	4200
Coffre de Lo Pou	4200	4200	0	4200
Jarama II	4185	4185	0	4185
Estanque	4182	4182	0	4182
Rimbeck, Weißes Holz	4181	4181	0	4181
Duos Nuraghes	2476	4180	1704	4180
Monte Abraão	4040	4180	140	4180
Estria	4110	4180	70	4180
Langeneichstädt	4180	4180	0	4180
Savassona	4180	4180	0	4180
Remlingen	4180	4180	0	4180
La Cabane Cesar	4180	4180	0	4180
La Bertrandoune	4170	4170	0	4170
La Cave aux Fées	4170	4170	0	4170
La Pijotilla	3860	4168	308	4168
Arquinho da Moura	3030	4160	1130	4160
Le Mont Aimé II	4160	4160	0	4160
Coveta del Marge del Moro	4160	4160	0	4160
Knowth 2	3185	4158	973	4158
Felletin	1820	4150	2330	4150
Reguers de Seró	4150	4150	0	4150
Casainhos	4150	4150	0	4150
Trou Arnaud	4140	4140	0	4140
Ingelstorp 10	4140	4140	0	4140
Vale da Cerva	4140	4140	0	4140
Arnajons	4140	4140	0	4140
Grotte d'Eybral	4140	4140	0	4140
Hal-Saflieni	4130	4130	0	4130
La Pitojilla	4130	4130	0	4130
Naschendorf	4127	4127	0	4127
Balma de Montbolo	4120	4120	0	4120
Ballyutoag	4120	4120	0	4120
Allée couverte de Lamsoul	4055	4115	60	4115
Carrer Paris	3870	4110	240	4110
Coma Franceze	4110	4110	0	4110
Agualva	4110	4110	0	4110
Hindbydösen	4110	4110	0	4110
Klein Zastrow	4106	4106	0	4106
Lohne, Züschen I	4105	4105	0	4105
Monte Areo XXII	4103	4103	0	4103
Cau d´en Calvet	4100	4100	0	4100
Les Crottes/Roaix C5	4100	4100	0	4100
Peyrecor	575	4095	3520	4095
Seddas de Daga	4091	4091	0	4091
Riffat	4090	4090	0	4090
I Calanchi, Taffoni 2	4080	4080	0	4080
Sobreira de Cima 5	4080	4080	0	4080
Amarguillo	4070	4070	0	4070
Bredelem	4070	4070	0	4070
Puerto de los Huertos	4070	4070	0	4070
Cueva de Los Enebralejos	4070	4070	0	4070
Pedra Escorregadia	3800	4060	260	4060
Avezac	4060	4060	0	4060
Pedras da Granja	4050	4050	0	4050
Hagestad	4040	4040	0	4040
Le Aspies	4040	4040	0	4040
Cau de la Guineu	4040	4040	0	4040
Le Prignon	4040	4040	0	4040
Les Crottes/Roaix C2	4040	4040	0	4040
Nuraghe Noeddos	3145	4030	885	4030
Falk stad	3410	4030	620	4030
Alcaide	3755	4030	275	4030
Falköping 26	4015	4030	15	4030
Frauenmark	4010	4010	0	4010
Nebel	4005	4005	0	4005
Ithe	3500	4000	500	4000
Sarup Mølle	3850	4000	150	4000
Tituaria	3995	3995	0	3995
Lancken-Granitz	3885	3990	105	3990
Scab e Arriu	3989	3989	0	3989
Pierre Fiche	3985	3985	0	3985
Villard	3000	3980	980	3980
Aesch	3820	3975	155	3975
La Boussière	3975	3975	0	3975
Villevielle	3970	3970	0	3970
Germigny-l´Evêque	3970	3970	0	3970
Moneen	3755	3960	205	3960
Petit Vieux-Sou	3960	3960	0	3960
Steden	3960	3960	0	3960
Padru Jossu	3843	3957	114	3957
Mind´e Gureu	3957	3957	0	3957
Le Bois Neuf	2560	3955	1395	3955
Champtier des Bureaux	3950	3950	0	3950
Saint-Marc	3950	3950	0	3950
Le Côtes de Roquefort	3930	3930	0	3930
Los Gabrieles	3700	3920	220	3920
Tinqueux	3910	3910	0	3910
Les Grezes	3910	3910	0	3910
Gökhem 71	3810	3900	90	3900
Cebolinhos 2	3840	3900	60	3900
Aven du Gendarme	3890	3890	0	3890
Rathmannsdorf	1265	3870	2605	3870
Etteln	3870	3870	0	3870
Attagarden	3410	3865	455	3865
Öglunda	3865	3865	0	3865
Saint Martin du Larzac	325	3855	3530	3855
Illade 3	3855	3855	0	3855
Pomps	3850	3850	0	3850
Serrahn 2	3845	3845	0	3845
Pocito Chico	3830	3830	0	3830
Lough Gur 18	3830	3830	0	3830
Qualitz	3829	3829	0	3829
Le Champs Grosset, La Croix St. Pierre	3820	3820	0	3820
Reboredo 1	3820	3820	0	3820
Samarra	3820	3820	0	3820
Mourela 7	3820	3820	0	3820
Costa de Can Martorell	3795	3810	15	3810
Klein Upahl	3810	3810	0	3810
Labbacallee	3630	3805	175	3805
Nissehøj	3620	3800	180	3800
Katelbogen	3800	3800	0	3800
Poggendorfer Forst	3795	3795	0	3795
Lough Gur 9	3780	3780	0	3780
Hulbjerg	3400	3770	370	3770
Brunku Madugui	3770	3770	0	3770
Chaleil	3760	3760	0	3760
Estremoz 7	3758	3758	0	3758
Les Mournouards	3750	3750	0	3750
Biniai Nou	3200	3745	545	3745
Cortijo de El Tardón	3745	3745	0	3745
Crec´h Quillé	3740	3740	0	3740
Lough Gur 8	3740	3740	0	3740
I Calanchi, Taffoni 3	3740	3740	0	3740
Dragby	3175	3725	550	3725
Lough Gur 14	3720	3720	0	3720
Cabecuda	3720	3720	0	3720
Lough Gur 6	3710	3710	0	3710
Roque d´Aille	3710	3710	0	3710
Clarena	3700	3700	0	3700
Les Gouttes d´Or	3690	3690	0	3690
Plélauff	3640	3680	40	3680
Göteborg	3675	3675	0	3675
Lough Gur 17	3670	3670	0	3670
Grotte de Leygonie	3660	3660	0	3660
Lescar	3650	3650	0	3650
Guiry-en Vexin	3640	3640	0	3640
Odensala	3585	3630	45	3630
Conguel	3610	3630	20	3630
Lough Gur 7	3630	3630	0	3630
Annelund	3020	3625	605	3625
Outeiro de Gregos 1	3360	3620	260	3620
Ithe 23	3610	3610	0	3610
Teulières	3610	3610	0	3610
Ca Na Costa	3535	3595	60	3595
Can Roqueta II	3305	3590	285	3590
Jardines aux Moines	3580	3580	0	3580
Essômes-sur-Marne	3580	3580	0	3580
Pincevent	3580	3580	0	3580
Gatas	3355	3570	215	3570
Berga	3570	3570	0	3570
Lough Gur 5	3560	3560	0	3560
Fuente Alamo	3435	3545	110	3545
Cova Cervereta	3540	3540	0	3540
Can Roqueta/Torre de Romeu	3040	3530	490	3530
Cortiijo de El Tardón	3530	3530	0	3530
Carrer Riereta	3530	3530	0	3530
La Traviesa	3420	3520	100	3520
Setefilla	3470	3520	50	3520
Vall de Miarnau	3520	3520	0	3520
Pou Nou II	3515	3515	0	3515
Bjurhovda	3510	3510	0	3510
Ithe 24	3510	3510	0	3510
La Serreta	3505	3505	0	3505
Can Filuà	3500	3500	0	3500
Vallon du Fer	3500	3500	0	3500
Cerro de la Corrona	3490	3490	0	3490
S´Aigua Dolca	3365	3485	120	3485
Son Bauló de Dalt	3305	3480	175	3480
Fourknocks II	3480	3480	0	3480
Les Maioles	3475	3475	0	3475
Can Castellvi de las Planes	3470	3470	0	3470
Trollasten	2950	3460	510	3460
Montplé	3280	3460	180	3460
Algutsrum	3455	3460	5	3460
Can Ballara	3460	3460	0	3460
Châtaigniers	3430	3430	0	3430
Falasa	3230	3425	195	3425
Su Nuraxi	3420	3420	0	3420
Ses Roques Llises	2890	3395	505	3395
Ses Arenes de Baix	3185	3390	205	3390
Sutta Corongiu	3375	3375	0	3375
Biníai Nou	2935	3360	425	3360
Alcaidús	3075	3360	285	3360
Barrocal de Freiras 3	3355	3355	0	3355
Ortu Comidu	2910	3350	440	3350
Ballykeel	3350	3350	0	3350
La Betoulle	690	3345	2655	3345
L´Abeille	3335	3335	0	3335
Cova de Montanissell	3200	3330	130	3330
Ostenwalde I	1500	3320	1820	3320
Ferragut Nou	3300	3300	0	3300
Jard-sur-mer	3300	3300	0	3300
Tafaina	3300	3300	0	3300
Castello de Ceccia 3	3295	3295	0	3295
Lough Gur 13	3260	3260	0	3260
Tesorillo de la Llaná	3250	3250	0	3250
Martingiana	3060	3220	160	3220
Gasoru	2790	3210	420	3210
Saint Hilaire	3185	3185	0	3185
Fontanilles	3180	3180	0	3180
Nuraghe Albucciu	2720	3170	450	3170
Son Ermità	3170	3170	0	3170
Oridda	3170	3170	0	3170
Tappa II	3150	3150	0	3150
Filitosa	3150	3150	0	3150
Clos Louis Barthez 2	3140	3140	0	3140
Island	3050	3110	60	3110
Carvalhal	3100	3100	0	3100
Bas de Chagny	3085	3085	0	3085
Sa Mandra´e sa Giua	2460	3050	590	3050
Zambujeiro 4	3040	3040	0	3040
Sarupgard	3025	3025	0	3025
Storegarden Barsebäck	3020	3020	0	3020
Nuraghe Sala e Serru	3010	3010	0	3010
Perda Utzei	2865	3002	137	3002
La Pierre Couvretière II	2880	2990	110	2990
Stantare	2120	2950	830	2950
Loma del Puerco	2940	2940	0	2940
Nuraghe Serrucci	2710	2930	220	2930
Castello d'Araggio, C-Ar-1 980	2930	2930	0	2930
Genna Maria	2920	2920	0	2920
Nuraghe Arribiu	2910	2910	0	2910
Castello d'Araggio, C-Ar-3	2890	2890	0	2890
Cala Morell	2080	2875	795	2875
La Encantada 1	2830	2830	0	2830
Herljunga	2820	2820	0	2820
Lluculari 3	2705	2705	0	2705
Cabritos 1	2700	2700	0	2700
Clarà	2685	2685	0	2685
Palaggiu	2650	2680	30	2680
Palacio III	2660	2660	0	2660
Binigafull	2650	2650	0	2650
Tappa I	2630	2630	0	2630
Calascoves	2290	2595	305	2595
Cova de Sant Joan de Missa	2460	2580	120	2580
Mas Saint-Chely	2560	2560	0	2560
Llanera	2550	2550	0	2550
Castello d'Araggio, C-Ar-2	2500	2500	0	2500
Sa Regana de Cans	2450	2450	0	2450
Dolmen de Settiva	1510	2320	810	2320
Ring of Brodgar	2210	2320	110	2320
Mourioux	240	2010	1770	2010
Kilmashogue	1975	1975	0	1975
La Pointe aux Oies	1890	1890	0	1890
Aldeia de Bertiandos 6	1720	1720	0	1720
Frepestel	1660	1660	0	1660
Mamucci	1405	1520	115	1520
Saint-Maur-sur-Le-Loir	1500	1500	0	1500
Poulguen	1460	1460	0	1460
Brunec I	1250	1250	0	1250
Orca da Matança	1120	1170	50	1170
Karleby U	1135	1135	0	1135

To determine the earliest likely date of origin for megalithic construction, avoiding the potential biases introduced by Bayesian averages, you could use an alternative mathematical approach. Here are some potential methods:

1. Minimum Date Selection

Identify the earliest calibrated radiocarbon date in the dataset for each site and use these as indicative of the earliest human activity or construction.

2. Terminus Ante Quem Approach

Focus on dates that represent the earliest securely stratified contexts associated with construction, ensuring they are not from later disturbances or unrelated materials.

3. Cluster Analysis

Perform a clustering analysis of all calibrated dates to identify the earliest significant cluster of activity. This can help filter out outliers and provide a more accurate picture of early construction activity.

4. Monte Carlo Simulation

Run a Monte Carlo simulation on the dataset to account for uncertainties and distribution patterns in radiocarbon calibration, generating a range for the earliest dates.

5. Probability Density Function Peaks

Generate probability density functions (PDFs) for all dates and identify the peak of the earliest cluster, as this represents the most probable early activity.

6. Stratigraphic and Contextual Filtering

Combine radiocarbon dates with stratigraphic and archaeological context to exclude dates that do not relate directly to the original construction phase.

Country	Latest_date	Earlist_date	Date_range	Likelly Date
France	240	8800	8560	8800
Portugal	270	8750	8480	8750
Germany	1265	8328	7063	8328
Sweden	100	7615	7515	7615
Denmark	2190	7580	5390	7580
Scotland	920	7500	6580	7500
Spain	440	7440	7000	7440
Ireland	940	6925	5985	6925
England	1130	6180	5050	6180
Maltese Archipelago	1480	6140	4660	6140
Poland	4135	6060	1925	6060
Italy	2460	5423	2963	5423
Norway	4270	4660	390	4660
Netherlands	4480	4630	150	4630
Belgium	4055	4425	370	4425
Switzerland	3790	4390	600	4390

(Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe)

Rethinking the Origins of Megalithic Civilization: A Critical Perspective

The groundbreaking study by Schulz Paulsson has marked a turning point in archaeological thought, admitting for the first time that the builders of megalithic monuments were seafarers with boats far earlier than traditionally accepted. This acknowledgement opens new doors for understanding the movement of people and ideas in prehistory. However, while the study’s conclusions are significant, there are critical discrepancies in the dating of these monuments, challenging the timeline proposed in their findings. (Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe)

Stonehenge: A Monument Far Older Than Previously Believed

For over a decade, my research has focused on revising the construction timeline of Stonehenge. Current mainstream archaeological interpretations, such as those by Mike Parker-Pearson of English Heritage, suggest a date of 3300 BCE for the site’s primary construction phase, mainly based on subjective judgments and limited carbon dating evidence from bluestone quarries. However, this framework overlooks the overwhelming evidence for much earlier activity at the site.

Carbon dates from the Mesolithic hearths at the bluestone quarries, Stonehenge’s old car park, and even beneath Stone 10 in the centre circle consistently point to an 8300 BCE construction date. The statistical likelihood of these dates aligning with Mesolithic features by chance is astronomically low (a 15-billion-to-1 probability). This suggests a Mesolithic origin for Stonehenge, long before the traditional Neolithic timeline.

Addressing the Chronological Gap

The broader archaeological record, however, presents a challenge to this hypothesis. Textbooks commonly date megalithic monuments to 5000 years later, raising questions about why similar structures are not found from the same Mesolithic period. Schulz Paulsson’s study narrows this gap significantly, proposing that these structures date to around 2000 years earlier. Yet, even this adjusted timeline leaves critical questions unanswered.

The Problem with Bayesian Analysis

One of the primary issues in the Schulz Paulsson study is the reliance on Bayesian statistical modelling for analyzing over 2000 radiocarbon dates. While Bayesian methods are effective for calculating central probabilities, they are ill-suited for determining the origins of construction phases. By averaging dates, the method conflates later usage phases with original construction periods, leading to misleading results.

For example, at Ascott-under-Wychwood, radiocarbon dates range from 1130 BCE to 6180 BCE, yet Bayesian analysis produces an estimate of 3125 BCE, which does not represent the site’s construction date. This highlights the limitations of using Bayesian averages to understand the origins of complex prehistoric sites.

Reconstructing the Data

We reconstructed the radiocarbon data to address these issues to focus on the earliest securely dated contexts. This approach reveals that Carnac in France—not Stonehenge—emerges as the oldest megalithic complex, dating to approximately 4500 BCE. However, Stonehenge, alongside several other contemporary structures, forms part of a network of early monuments that reflect regional variations and migrations of prehistoric cultures.

A New Map of Megalithic Civilization

We have used this reconstructed data for the first time to produce a map displaying the chronological development of megalithic monuments by country. This visualization illustrates the spread of megalithic construction across Europe, beginning in northwestern France and gradually radiating outward. The map aligns with the narrative of maritime diffusion proposed in the Schulz Paulsson study but emphasizes more accurate construction dates and regional groupings.

Conclusion

This new perspective challenges long-held assumptions about the origins and development of megalithic structures. By reanalyzing radiocarbon data with a focus on the earliest construction phases, we move closer to understanding the actual timeline of this extraordinary prehistoric tradition. While Schulz Paulsson’s work represents progress, a deeper reevaluation of dating methods and interpretations is essential for uncovering the full story of these enigmatic monuments.

(Maritime Diffusion Model for Megaliths in Europe)